We’re officially one week into the NBA season, and Tuesday offers another solid five-game roster. Tonight’s props focus on the 8 p.m. ET and later games that have a lot of star power, but the marquee game is the last drink between the Denver Nuggets and the Utah Jazz.
With LeBron James demoted to questionable, it’s hard to predict how the new (and old) Lakers will fare, so I went with a few players from the GS-OKC, HOU-DAL, and DEN-UTA contests.
Let’s dive in!
Below I have presented three prop bets that I play using the Action Labs Player Prop Tool, the case for every bet, and the best books for finding odds on these player accessories.
NBA player choice and accessories
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander more than 4.5 assists (+110)
|Warriors vs. Thunder||Thunder +9.5|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET|
The Thunder are 0-3 and face the visiting Warriors on Tuesday night. Gilgeous-Alexander has just had his best game of the year, losing 29 points with 8 assists in 38 minutes against the 76ers.
Over three games this year, he’s averaged 4.0 assists per game, but the Warriors will likely force him to play for the others as he’s Oklahoma City’s only competent scorer. At 4.5 assists and more odds, this is good value for SGA to exceed market expectations.
FantasyLabs predicts SGA will play 31.8 minutes against the Dubs, and although their career numbers against Golden State are under 4.5 assists (averaging 3.3 in 7 games played), their Thunder teammates are missing their chances. to score. According to NBA advanced statistics, he’s averaged 9.0 assists per game this season.
The Warriors are second in the NBA in Rhythm in the first week of the season, and with the Thunder still chasing their first win as a 9.5-point home dog, this is a good place for SGA to fill the box score. Our action projection tool has Gilgeous-Alexander distributing 5.7 assists with a bet quality score of 10/10; I like it on a larger scale.
Kevin Porter Jr. more than 4.5 assists (-135)
|Rockets vs. Mavericks||Mavericks -10.5|
|Time | TV||8:30 p.m. ET|
The other Porter Jr. has been a turnover machine in the first three games of the season. He started the year with nine turnovers and had eight against the Celtics a few days ago.
The good thing here is that the Rockets aren’t going anywhere fast, and there isn’t a ton of depth behind him to execute the offense. Job security is important, and even with his offensive struggles he’s a safe bet to play plenty of minutes and have the ball in his hands against the Mavericks on Tuesday night.
According to NBA Advanced Statistics, KPJ is averaging 45 assists per game, a high for the team, as well as 7.3 potential assists per game this season. The Mavs are in the middle of the pack in defensive efficiency (103.7) in their first two games. And, although this is a small sample, Trae Young (14) and Fred VanVleet (5) have successfully passed the current KPJ assists market against the Mavs.
He’s averaged 5.3 assists this season, but that number is backed up by his 10-assists performance against the Thunder. 31% of his assists went to Christian Wood, but 56% of his assists came from beyond the arc. The Mavs do a good job protecting the paint but allow opponents to shoot three points at a rate of 40.2%.
As an 11 point road dog this game has waste time written all over it which should further benefit KPJ’s potential. In 23 games where he played between 30 and 39 minutes, he has averaged 5.3 dimes. Our action projection tool has Kevin Porter Jr. amassing 6.3 assists, so I’m going on that prop as well.
Michael Porter Jr. over 5.5 rebounds (-125)
|Nuggets vs. Jazz||Jazz -7|
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET|
Porter Jr. entered the 2021-22 season as one of the favorites to win the Most Improved Player award, and rightly so. He became the second option on the Nuggets offense and turned that opportunity into 22.8 points, 7.0 rebounds and 1.3 assists in 23 games with Murray (ACL tear) out of the roster.
However, it was a difficult start to the season for MPJ. In three games played, he averages just 11.0 points with 4.7 rebounds and 2.7 assists in 29.3 minutes. Despite its struggles, the Jazz offers an excellent low buying opportunity for Porter Jr.
The four-year-old pro averages 8.3 rebounds per game over his career against the Jazz. He’s also scored 5.5 rebounds in three of his last four games against Utah. He took six rebounds to open the season, but minutes were hard to come by. He’s played 27 minutes in the last two games, but if he can see more than 30 minutes tonight, 5.5 rebounds shouldn’t be a challenge for him.
When he’s been scrapped 30-39 minutes in his career, he’s averaging 8.1 rebounds per game. FantasyLabs is projecting it to get 33 minutes tonight, supporting this potential outcome.
The Utah Jazz are undefeated and the Nuggets are 7.5 point dogs. In what is likely to be the game of the night, expect MPJ to come out motivated as he holds a 3-1 record against Jazz during his career. Our Action Projection Tool has Porter Jr. amassing 7.5 rebounds tonight, and with a bet quality score of 10, I’ll be shutting down Tuesday’s props once again.
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