Sunday’s NFL slate is dripping with more revenge than a Taylor Swift album, as the Colts face a Bills team that knocked them out of last year’s playoffs, Ron Rivera heads to Carolina for face his old team and quarterback and Ravens QB Lamar Jackson battles his 49th illness of the season. Here are the six player props we’ll be playing on BetMGM on Sunday (Greg’s version):
After missing five weeks with a sprained knee, Montgomery managed 76.5 percent from backfield against the Steelers in his first comeback. If we know anything about Bears coach Matt Nagy, it’s that he enjoys running the ball. Chicago has at least 26 rushing attempts in eight of its nine games this season. Four of the last six backfields the Ravens’ defense have faced have taken 100 rushing yards. Montgomery is averaging 74.4 rushing yards this season. More than 12% of his runs have totaled 10 yards or more, while the Ravens allow the fifth highest double-digit winning percentage on runs (14.2%).
Betting two Bears player props in the same week is the last thing you do before they suit you up for a straitjacket. Chicago’s passing offense earlier in the season was about as clear as a Rorschach test, but rookie Justin Fields settles into his role under center doing what he’s done best. at university: throw the ball deep. Fields posted a 68% accuracy on throws over 20 yards before entering the NFL. He’s been leading all starting quarterbacks in aDOT (Average Target Depth) over the past few weeks and has one of the league’s best young vertical threats at Mooney. The former Tulane Burner is averaging 6.6 targets per game and has a catch of at least 20 yards in five of nine outings. Chicago will be without receiver Allen Robinson against a Ravens secondary, dropping the deepest third receptions. Baltimore starts Sunday’s game with three cornerbacks in the injured reserve and three more who are listed as questionable for playing with injuries.
Joe Mixon over 85.5 rushing and receiving yards
Cincinnati is back to get Mixon involved in the passing game, targeting him at least five times in three of their last four games. Las Vegas have been absolutely rocked by the running backs, giving up 158.8 yards per game at the post since Week 4. Mixon at -150 to score a touchdown could also be worth a little play, as he has scored in each of his six. last matches. He’s ready for a big game on Sunday. Even Carole Baskin couldn’t stop this Tiger King.
If you watched the Titans ’23-21 win over the Saints last week, you were probably thinking,’ Who is this guy? when Johnson turned a four-yard slant pass into a 50-yard gain. The undrafted free agent runs a 4.39 40 and stepped up in the absence of Julio Jones to lead Tennessee in targets, converting five catches to 100 yards. Without Jones and Derrick Henry, the Titans are badly in need of playmakers like Johnson, who gets a game over against the Texans.
Joe Flacco more than 0.5 interceptions thrown
Broadway Joe is making a comeback in what could be the saddest comeback tour since Vanilla Ice. Flacco has pitched a pick in eight of his last 10 starts and will face an improving Dolphins defense that will beat the league’s second-highest rate and recorded an interception in three of their last four games.
Nico Collins over 27.5 yards on reception
The Houston rookie wide receiver has averaged 4.5 targets per game in his last four games and recorded a 70% success rate against the Dolphins before the Texans entered a week off. He topped that number in four of six games and will be the recipient of a best quarterback game with Tyrod Taylor. Collins’ tall frame and contested catching ability make him a threat to strike the most with just one reception.
Statistics provided by Pro Football Reference, stathead.com, CBS Sports and nfl.com.