We’re sticking to a theme tonight and aiming for three point totals. Each of the three players I have covered are in a good position to burn the net tonight. Be sure to monitor all the news as the Covid is preventing players from exiting the league.
We will use the Action Labs Player Prop Tool to compare our NBA projections to props posted on a variety of sportsbooks. Below I have presented three prop bets that I play, the case for each bet, and the best books to find odds on these player props.
NBA player choice and accessories
DeMar DeRozan, more than 29.5 points (+100)
|Bulls vs. Rockets||Bulls -7.5|
|time | TV||8 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Chicago Bulls play a back-to-back game tonight after beating the Los Angeles Lakers at home last night, 115-110. They now host the Houston Rockets, who beat them in their last meeting. The Rockets are 3-13 on the road this season and the Bulls are 7-point favorites. Revenge is on the table.
Zach LaVine is not expected to return until Christmas due to Covid protocols, so it will be the DeMar DeRozan show. Losing LaVine and his 26 points per game is a big deal.
However, last night DeRozan proved he can still take control of games even at 32. He finished with 38 points, four rebounds and six assists. He pulled a ridiculous 16-17 from the charity band.
DeRozan has missed the previous three games due to Covid protocols. Before last night, he hadn’t played in a game since December 4, more than two weeks ago. Watching DeRozan play 34 minutes last night while making 24 field goal attempts makes me giddy to see what he can do against the Rockets.
The Rockets are 25th in defense and have allowed 112.9 points per game, which is the third highest in the league. They also play second fastest pace. DeRozan saw a 40.4% utilization rate last night! It’s safe to say that its production will see a major boom without LaVine for the foreseeable future.
I was tempted to take a points and assists prop from DeRozan, but I will take the points given the shots he can achieve without LaVine. Let’s give him another 30-ball.
Donovan Mitchell, more than 26.5 points (+100)
|Jazz vs. Hornets||Jazz -11.5|
|time | TV||9 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Utah Jazz have unusually lost back-to-back home games to the Wizards and Spurs. They get a bounce back tonight against the Hornets, who are just 8-12 on the road and the Jazz are big favorites with 11.5 points.
I’m having so much fun accessing these even point props, let’s go get another one with Donovan Mitchell. This play total is the higher on the slate at a ridiculous 237 points! It’s one of the highest totals we’ve seen all season. The Jazz have an implied total of 124.5 points, which is laughable.
Mitchell continues to lead the Jazz with an average of 25.2 points per game. It ranks fifth in the entire league in utilization rate with 33.4%. He has scored 27 or more points in eight of his last nine games. Over the past 10 games, Mitchell has averaged 29.2 points per game while shooting 53.2% from the field and 40.2% from behind the 3-point arc. He will absolutely turn it on tonight.
This game against the Hornets is arguably the best game in the league. hornets ranked last in the defensive standings this season and Pace’s fourth. They allowed 116.6 points per game, which is also the worst in the league. They are allowing 48.7 points in the paint this season which ranks 29th and Mitchell has an average of 4.4 goals scored per game on his records. He should be in attack mode for most of the night as the Jazz look for a big rebound victory.
Need more Hornets Defensive Nuggets? They are also allowing 14.2 points to 3 points per game, which is the second-worst in the league. Mitchell buries 3.3 points at 3 points per game. How you want it, where you want it, Hornets? Mitchell can get any shot he wants tonight. It’s my favorite accessory on the set.
Tyrese Haliburton, over 14.5 points (-116)
|Warriors vs. Kings||Warriors -12.5|
|time | TV||10 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
The Sacramento Kings are trying to hold out like every other team that follows Covid mass protocols. They will be without De’Aaron Fox, Terence Davis, Marvin Bagley, Davion Mitchell and Alex Len tonight. Richaun Holmes is listed as questionable as he has missed their last six games.
At this point, we’re all on the point props tonight! I also love this accessory from Tyrese Haliburton. Sadly, this accessory isn’t even priced like the other two, but I wouldn’t mind upgrading it to be. There are a lot of Haliburton accessories that I love, but I figured I would stick to the point theme.
At the end two games without Fox in training, the Kings were led by Haliburton. He averages 24 points per game, 10.5 assists per game and five rebounds per game. Haliburton recorded a season-high 25.8% utilization rate in their last game and attempted 19 field-goal attempts, a season-high. He played 37 and 38 minutes while scoring 21 and 27 points. This accessory is way too low.
The main concern here is obviously the matchup. The Warriors lead the league in defensive odds this season. They are tied for the least points allowed at 101.1 per game. It’s no surprise they are favorites with 12.5 points at home tonight when they have lost just two games all season.
Despite the tough game, the books, in my opinion, are overreacting. For what it’s worth, last season Haliburton averaged the most points against the Warriors compared to any other team in the league. In two games, he averaged 22.5 points per game. Even if the Kings blow themselves up, I still think Haliburton can do it. I would take this prop up to 16.5 points.
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