Heat vs Hawks prediction, odds, line: 2022 NBA playoff picks, Model Game 3 best bets on 86-56 run

The Miami Heat visit the Atlanta Hawks on Friday in an intriguing game from all sides. Miami leads Atlanta 2-0 in a best-of-seven first-round game, winning both home games so far in the 2022 NBA Playoffs. The Hawks now have a chance to play in front of their home fans, and Atlanta is 20-3 in the last 23 home games. Bam Adebayo (quad), Caleb Martin (ankle), PJ Tucker (calf) and Markieff Morris (hip) are listed as questionable for the Heat. Clint Capela (knee) is out for the Hawks.

Caesars Sportsbook lists Miami as a 1.5 point favorite on the road for this 7 p.m. ET whistleblower. The total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, or the most-under, is 221.5 in the latest Heat vs. Hawks odds. Before making any Hawks vs. Heat picks, be sure to check out the 2022 NBA playoff predictions and betting tips from SportsLine’s Advanced Computer Model.

The SportsLine projection model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has earned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three seasons. The model enters the first full week of the 2022 NBA Playoffs on a stunning 86-56 result over all NBA top picks, grossing nearly $2,400. Anyone who follows him has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Hawks, and has just locked in its picks and predictions on the NBA playoffs. You can head over to SportsLine now to see the model choices. Here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Hawks vs. Heat:

  • Spread Heat vs Hawks: Heat -1.5
  • Heat vs. Hawks over-under: 221.5 points
  • Money line Heat vs. Hawks: Heat -120, Hawks +100
  • MIA: The Heat are 8-1 ATS in last nine games
  • ATL: Hawks are 9-4 ATS in last 13 games

Featured Game | Atlanta Hawks vs. Miami Heat

Why heat can cover

Miami dominated the first two games, edging Atlanta by 34 points. The Heat silenced the Hawks with an elite defensive performance, holding the league’s No. 2 offense at just 1.00 points per possession. Miami gets 76% of available defensive rebounds, an elite figure, and the Heat force a turnover on 18.9% of defensive possessions. Atlanta finished No. 1 in the NBA in ball safety on offense this season, but Miami was able to create chaos on a regular basis. That includes 10.5 steals per game and the Hawks having exactly as many assists as turnovers over two games in the series.

On offense, Miami is also playing pretty well, headlined by a 45-point outburst from Jimmy Butler in Game 2 on Tuesday. The Heat are assisting on 69.1% of field goals, a mark that would have led the NBA in the regular season, and Miami is shooting 43.2% from 3-point range against Atlanta. The Hawks finished the regular season in the NBA’s bottom five in defensive efficiency, and Atlanta continues to function without its defensive centerpiece given Capela’s injury.

Why the Hawks can cover

The Hawks have struggled in Miami, but Atlanta has been a different team at home the past few days. Atlanta is 20-3 in the last 23 home games, and from Jan. 17 to the end of the regular season, the Hawks outscored opponents by 8.7 points per 100 possessions in home games. In those 23 games, including a play-in win over Charlotte, Atlanta has scored 226 more points than its opponents at State Farm Arena. With the change of venue, the Hawks may be more comfortable on offense, and Atlanta finished No. 2 in the NBA in regular-season offensive efficiency.

Trae Young is the centerpiece of Atlanta’s offense, averaging 28.4 points and 9.7 assists per game in 2021-22, and Young became the first player in nearly five decades to lead the NBA in total points and total assists in the same season. The Hawks are also excellent at the free throw line, making 81.2% of attempts in the regular season and 82.9% of attempts in the series. On defense, Atlanta struggled at times, but they managed to keep Miami from generating second-chance opportunities with a stellar 81.0% defensive rebound rate.

How to make Hawks vs. Heat picks

SportsLine’s model leans into the total, projecting a combined 227 points. The model also indicates that one side of the gap hits more than 60% of the time. You can only see the model choice on SportsLine.

So who wins Heat vs. Hawks? And which side of the spread hits more than 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you should jump to, all from the model who crushed his NBA picks, and find out.