There are few days on the NBA regular season schedule that I enjoy more than the night after the All-Star rosters are announced. And that’s because we can bet on All-Star snubs.
Motivation is everything in the NBA, especially on a Friday night in February in the midst of a long and grueling regular season. Finding the guys with a little more motivation can sometimes be enough.
Tonight we’ll be playing props for three guys who might have expected their names to be called for the All-Star Game last night and using the Action Labs Player Prop Tool to find the best line.
NBA Players’ Accessories and Picks
LaMelo Ball, Over 7.5 AST (+112) | Record a triple-double (+1500)
|Cavaliers vs. Hornets||Hornets -4.5|
|Time | TV||7 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
I’m not sure there’s a bigger snub this season than LaMelo Ball. He continues to be a revelation and looked like a surefire reserve as the powerhouse for the Charlotte Hornets, who are currently 28-24 and just 1.5 games behind the Brooklyn Nets to crack the top six in the standings and out of the game. – in range.
Ball continues to put up big numbers every night: 19.9 points, 7.2 rebounds and 7.7 assists per game. He’s already landed four triple-doubles this season and is one of the league’s brightest young stars, a highlight reel with his dazzling passes.
In a bigger market, he would be a certain All Star and maybe a starter. Instead, he’s been kicked out of the squad altogether – and he’s most likely lost his spot to Darius Garland, whose team he’ll face tonight. Sounds like a big inbound game from Ball to me.
Moreover, the figures are already in our favour. Ball has topped 7.5 assists in seven of his last 10 games, averaging 8.6 per game outside of an outlier with two cents. Ball has surpassed 7.5 assists in 24 games this season, a 53% completion rate for a prop we get more juice on.
I also get greedy and jump into this triple-double All-Star Snub Statement Game. Ball is a proud player and you have to believe that his teammates will want to help him make a statement.
He scored 10 or more points in all but three games, had double-digit assists in 12 of 45 games, and double-digit rebounds in nine of them. LaMelo has four triple-doubles this season, but he also has 10 other games where he was within three combined rebounds or assists of another triple-double. That’s 31% of his games where Ball had a real hit.
We get +1500, an implied 6.2% to a triple-double. He’s done it in 8.9% of his games this year and got in range in 31% of them, so I have to take a chance in a game where he wants to put in big numbers.
Evan Mobley, under 18.5 points (-105)
You could say Evan Mobley is another snub. Mobley was awesome as a rookie. He’s averaging 15.2 points and 8.2 rebounds per game, and he’s had an even bigger impact defensively with 1.7 blocks and 0.7 steals per game. he helped push the Cavs into the heat of the moment with the league’s third-best defensive rating.
Still, it’s probably a little early for Mobley to be an All Star — and that’s partly down to teammate Jarrett Allen, the real snub on this list. With Darius Garland and most of the other Cavs guards out, Mobley recorded a career-high 29 points last game, which is why that line is high. But Mobley isn’t exactly a first-to-score player, and he got a big assist in this game thanks to Houston’s pace and lack of defense. I’m betting on Allen having the biggest All-Star snub performance and Mobley regressing closer to his usual numbers.
Before that 29-point outburst, Mobley had gone below 18.5 points in seven straight games. He’s fallen below that number in 35 of 44 NBA games, giving him an 80% success rate. Even with more presumed volume because Garland is missing, I have to play that below.
One player who could absorb some of those points is Brandon Goodwin. He averaged 14.6 out of 36 career points and started in place of Garland. Goodwin played over 32 minutes last game, and if you’re playing that much for a team that needs points, then over 10.5 points isn’t a big ask. It’s a good overplay, especially if you want to pair it with Mobley’s sub and hope it gets a few points that Mobley won’t get tonight.
Kyrie Irving, Over 2.5 3 points (+126)
|Nets versus Jazz||Jazz-3.5|
|Time | TV||9 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Alright, Kyrie Irving doesn’t really count as an All-Star snub. The guy has only played 10 games, and as great as he is on the court, it’s hard to qualify for the All-Star Game with just 10 games played.
But that’s not to say Irving isn’t snubbed in his mind, so let’s stick to the theme here.
Really, it’s just a numbers game as the books are slow to adjust to Irving’s numbers, especially with Kevin Durant and a lot of volume to be had. After shaking off rust in his opener, Irving hit 38 percent of his 3s and took 6.7 per game. He made at least two 3s in all but one of those games, putting him in one of those games, and the only game below that was a blowout victory when he played heavily reduced minutes.
Irving has gone 2.5 times 3 in six of those last nine games, hitting that prop 67% of the time. This would imply a line of -200, but we play more juice instead at +126, an implied hit rate of 44%. And remember, the Nets are up against a crippled Jazz team that misses the heart of their usually tough defense, which should also make life a little easier.
There’s another Irving accessory that our tool loves today. You can play Irving to save more than 0.5 blocks at +180 at DraftKings. It might sound crazy, but Kyrie has at least one blocked shot in 38 of his 84 appearances with the Nets, a 45% success rate. Again, the math is heavily in our favor on that one for a bet that is close to a draw but gives us odds closer to 2 to 1.
For just the 3 points, I’ll play Irving to go over 2.5 marks at any positive number. We’re projecting it at 3.0 marks tonight.
Bets on bonus props
- Kevin Huerter, under 0.5 blocks (-125 DraftKings): Huerter has recorded a block in just 11 of 44 games this season, going below that line in 75% of his games. His minutes are back but it’s too juicy not to play, especially since the Raptors aren’t even in the top 10 in blocks allowed.
- OG Anunoby, 20+ points (+200 FanDuel): We hit that exact prop last night at +164, so let’s get back to the pits with our gains. Anunoby has scored over 20 points in four of his last six and eight of 16. His volume is up and all 3 are down, so we should have a good chance. We project Anunoby at 20.2 and recommend his 16.5 plus, but I’ll take the more aggressive play and hope to triple.