NBA DFS Breakdown (Wednesday, October 20): Rookies Offer Huge Value


Let’s dive into some of the best games on the slate using tools and metrics from FantasyLabs.

Also, don’t forget that for large field tournaments you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 queues, or use our Lineup Builder if you want to create your queues by hand. .

Wednesday offers a list of 11 games starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Note: Projections and leverage of scores / ratings may change throughout the day after the publication of this article. Check out the player models directly for any updates.

Guard point


Damien lillard just had another great season last year. He averaged 28.8 points, 7.5 assists and 4.2 rebounds per game, which averages 48.25 DraftKings points per game.

He stands out as one of the best stallions on Wednesday’s slate. The Blazers have an elite matchup against the Kings, who were the league’s worst defensive team last year. Not much is expected to change with the Kings this year, and the Blazers’ implied total of 118.75 is the best score on the slate.

Lillard is also underestimated at $ 10,000 on FanDuel. This results in a good deal score of 79%, and Lillard has an average Over / Under of +3.83 with a comparable salary over the past two seasons (according to the Trends tool).


Spencer dinwiddie was limited to just three games last season due to a ripped ACL, but he’s set for a big season with the Wizards. He should serve as the team’s No.2 option offensively, and Dinwiddie should thrive in that role. He fulfilled a similar role for the Nets in 2019-20, averaging 20.6 points and 6.8 assists per game.

Dinwiddie performed well in the preseason, averaging 1.08 DraftKings points per minute, and he’s currently thrown for just under 30 minutes in our NBA models. His salary of $ 4,900 on DraftKings also comes with a good 97% rating, so he’s massively undervalued.

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Nah’Shon “Os” Hyland was selected with the No.26 pick in the 2021 NBA Draft, and he’s going to play an important role for the Nuggets from the start. He led all rookies in scoring during the preseason, and the Nuggets have an opening to the point guard given the injury of Jamal Murray. Highland averaged 1.02 FanDuel points per minute during the preseason, so he doesn’t need a ton of playing time to pay his minimum wage in the industry.

Spurs are in rebuild mode after losing DeMar DeRozan and Marcus Aldridge over the past year which leaves guys like Dejounte Murray and White Derrick as the focal points of their attack. Both players have a strong opening night clash against the Magic, who tied for just 25th in defensive efficiency last year. Murray stands out on DraftKings because of his 89% bargain rating, while White has an 89% bargain rating on FanDuel.

Shooting guard


Bradley Beal could be set up for a career year. Russell westbrook is gone, and Dinwiddie isn’t going to command nearly the same rate of use on offense. Beal increased his utilization rate to 40.5% with Westbrook off the field last season, resulting in an average of 1.42 FanDuel points per minute. He was second in the league in scoring last year, and it’s not hard to imagine him leading the league in that department this year.

Beal is a particularly attractive option on FanDuel given its 79% bargain rating.


The Magic could be a great source of value on opening night. They always play without Michael carter-williams, Markelle Fultz, and Jonathan isaac, and Chuma okeke was also ruled out for Wednesday.

That leaves a small group of players to handle most of the use against Spurs. Cole anthony and Terrence Ross are both thrown for about 30 minutes in our NBA models, and both players average at least 0.98 FanDuel points per minute during the preseason. These are elite values ​​on FanDuel, where both players have a 98% bargain rating.

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The Pelicans are another team that will have additional use available on Wednesday. Zion Williamson is sidelined due to a foot injury, so rookie Trey murphy should play a big role from the start. He finished second among rookies in scoring this preseason, and averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute. It’s a great option for just $ 3,200 on DraftKings.

Zach LaVine is another option to consider paying. He quietly had an exceptional season in 2020-21, combining excellent point volume with elite efficiency. He’s screened for the second-highest number of minutes in that position on Wednesday, and he averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute last year.

Small before


Brandon ingram should be invited to make most of the points for the Pelicans on Wednesday. He increased his utilization rate by a whopping + 10.1% with Williamson off the field last season, resulting in an average of 1.23 DraftKings points per minute.

Ingram starts the year off with a tough clash against the 76ers, but they may not be the same team defensively without Ben Simmons. They allowed +3.1 more points per 100 possessions with Simmons off the field last year, which was the team’s highest score. Ingram is also underrated on DraftKings given its 83% market rating.


Recruits are going to be the best source of value on this slate, and Josh Giddey is the preferred target for the little one before. He’s scored at least 25.5 DraftKings points in his four preseason games, and he’s averaging 1.03 DraftKings points per minute. He’s currently slated for about 28 minutes to rebuild Thunder, so he should be able to afford his price tag of $ 3,800.

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Can I interest you in another Pelican? Nickeil Alexander-Walker does not hesitate to seek his shot on the field, and he should play a more important role with the Pelicans this season. He’s currently screened for 29.5 minutes in our NBA models, and he averaged 0.98 FanDuel points per minute last year. That’s a good deal at just $ 5,100 on FanDuel considering its 98% good deal rating.

Desmond Scourge is expected to be invited to play more minutes in his second season, and he averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute during the preseason. It’s cheap at just $ 3,200 on DraftKings, which gives it a 98% rating.

Forward power


Tobias Harris stands out as an elite value on FanDuel, and he should be asked to take on a bigger offensive workload with Simmons sidelined. He increased his use rate to a high of + 4.3% with Simmons off the field last season, resulting in an average of 1.16 FanDuel points per minute. Their clash against the Pelicans is also excellent: they placed ninth in pace and 23rd in defensive efficiency last year.


The Raptors draw the Wizards on opening night, and they were arguably the best fantasy clash last year. They played at the fastest pace in the league, and they were also below par in terms of defensive efficiency.

The Raptors also have plenty of spare minutes on opening night. Pascal Siakam and Yuta Watanabe are both injured, while Chris Boucher is questionable. That means Precious Achiuwa should have a role. He’s currently on screen for around 23.5 minutes and averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute last year. He increased that number to 1.26 during the preseason, so he’s definitely in the game at $ 3,100 on DraftKings.

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Jayson tatum feels pricey compared to some of the other options on opening night, but would still be worth considering if Jaylen brown is excluded. Brown is currently questionable due to COVID-19, and Tatum increased his utilization rate by + 3.8% with Brown off the field last season. He averaged 1.37 DraftKings points per minute in this situation, and his salary of $ 9,400 on DraftKings comes with a good mark of 86%.

Mo Bamba has PF eligibility on FanDuel, and he’s brimming with potential heading into this season. He averaged 1.29 FanDuel points per minute in limited playing time last year, and he increased that mark to 1.52 during the preseason. He should see a nice increase in his playing time this year with Nikola Vucevic in Chicago, so it could be the cheapest price of the whole year. It should be one of the most owned options on the $ 5,300 slate on FanDuel.



Joel Embiid should be the biggest beneficiary of Simmons’ absence. He posted a ridiculous 43% utilization rate with Simmons off the field last year, resulting in an average of 1.78 FanDuel points per minute. This is an absurd number.

He shouldn’t face much resistance from the Pelicans on opening night. Their defense wasn’t good early last year, and they allowed an extra +2.0 points per 100 possessions with Williamson off the field.


Robert williams was a monster per minute at times last year, and he should see an increase in playing time to start the season. Tristan thompson is gone, and Al horford is currently on the sidelines due to health and safety protocols. Williams is currently screened for about 25.5 minutes in our NBA models, and he should be able to crush his current salary with that much playing time. He’s never been screened for that many minutes with a similar price tag, so it is. an unprecedented place for him.

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Jonas Valanciunas and Jaren jackson jr. eaten at each other’s fantastic numbers in the past, so both should benefit from having Valanciunas now in New Orleans. Valanciunas stands out as a solid option on FanDuel, where his salary of $ 6,500 comes with a good 95% rating. A lack of playing time is the only thing that has kept him from scoring fantastic points in the past, and that shouldn’t be a problem with Williamson out of roster.

Jackson is the preferred target on DraftKings given his 94% good deal rating. His skill set is tantalizing for a big man, and he looked healthy averaging 1.26 DraftKings points per minute during the preseason.

If you are looking for a rookie value at the center, Evan mobley is your guy. He’s averaged 1.04 FanDuel points per minute during the preseason, and he’s screened for almost 28 minutes on opening night. He is a good value in the industry.