NBA DFS (Wednesday, November 3): Top Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings and FanDuel



NBA Player Models are the cornerstone of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the start of what you’ll find inside. You will also find our Trends tool and much more.

Let’s dive into our models, position by position, looking at the guys with some of the highest ceiling projections, as well as the players who stand out as values ​​with our projected plus / minus predictive metric.

Also, don’t forget that for large court tournaments you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 queues, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to build your squads by hand.

Note: Projections and leverage of scores / ratings may change throughout the day after the publication of this article. Check out the player models directly for any updates.

Guard point

Upper Cap: Stephen Curry vs. Charlotte Hornets – $ 11,100 DraftKings, $ 10,100 FanDuel

Chef Curry is expected to deliver a solid performance tonight as he returns to his home country for a tasty match. Over the season, Curry averaged 28.7 points, 7.5 boards, 6.5 cents and 1.5 sweeps, unsurprisingly acting as a catalyst for the team.

The game between the Hornets and the Warriors easily had the highest plus / minus on the slate at 226.0, adding to Curry’s elite advantage.


Best Value: Lonzo Ball at the Philadelphia 76ers – $ 7,400 DraftKings, $ 6,000 FanDuel

During the season, Ball averaged 12.3 points, 5.7 boards and 4.4 cents, although his biggest contribution was 3.0 combined blocks / steals per game which made him a player. elite.

Ball has a 97% rating on FanDuel because of the striking price differential, and unsurprisingly, he’s projected at 31-35% ownership. Conversely, Ball’s higher price on DraftKings sets it at 2-4% of the projected property on that site. Target him in cash games on FanDuel and GPP on DraftKings.

Shooting guard

Top Ceiling: Zach LaVine at the Philadelphia 76ers – $ 8,800 DraftKings, $ 8,100 FanDuel

LaVine has been eclipsed by DeMar DeRozan’s recent scoring explosion (69 points in his last two games), but the former has scored no less than 25 points in each of his last three games.

It has a high cap and also comes across as a healthy value, with at least 5.2 points / salary on each site.


Best Value: Collin Sexton vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $ 6,300 DraftKings, $ 6,400 FanDuel

Sexton’s scoring has been all over the map this season, but after back-to-back hiccups he rebounded well with a 17/7/2/2 line against the Hornets on Monday.

Portland is 20th in the defensive standings and ninth in pace, which bodes well for Sexton’s prospects in a game with the slate’s second highest plus / minus at 219.5. Due to its high risk, high reward play, Sexton is best suited for GPP.

Overall, it has better value on FanDuel, where it has a 73% rating.

Small before

Upper cap: DeMar DeRozan at the Philadelphia 76ers – $ 8,500 DraftKings, $ 8,200 FanDuel

DeRozan has at least 30 points, six rebounds and two assists in each of the last two games, and he comes off a record 37 points in Monday’s victory over the Celtics.

DeRozan leads Chicago in use this season at 29.1%, so he should have plenty of opportunities tonight against the Sixers.


Best Value: Kyle Anderson vs. Denver Nuggets – $ 4,100 DraftKings, $ 5,000 FanDuel

After a sluggish start to the season worthy of its nickname, Slow Mo turned the tide on its last three. During that span, the Memphis forward is averaging 10.0 points, 6.7 boards, 2.7 cents and 1.7 blocks / steals combined.

At his affordable salary, he is projected for 5.2 points / salary on FanDuel and 6.2 healthy on DraftKings with a rating of 88%.

Forward power

Upper Ceiling: Domantas Sabonis – $ 10,100 DraftKings, $ 9,800 FanDuel

The big man has been great all season, but he’s been particularly good in his last two. During that span, he’s averaged 23.0 points, 13.5 boards, 4.0 cents and 2.0 steals.

Sabonis is expected to own a bit more on FanDuel due to the reduced price, although he still arrives with at least a 90% leverage rating on each site due to a favorable combination of ownership and cap.


Max Value: PJ Washington at Golden State Warriors – $ 5,200 DraftKings, $ 5,000 FanDuel

Much like Kyle Anderson above, Washington has started the season slow. However, you wouldn’t know that based on their last two games, as Washington is averaging 17.5 points, 3.0 boards, and 2.0 blocks over that span.

Its price has yet to increase to accommodate the increased production, so you can still reap the benefits of its affordable salary at both locations. The clash with Golden State figures as the most significant contest on the slate.

Center

Upper Cap: Joel Embiid vs. Chicago Bulls – $ 10,300 DraftKings, $ 9,700 FanDuel

The reverse side of Embiid’s monster doesn’t need much explanation, and he’s the only player on the slate tonight with a 70 point cap. Over the season, the big man has a 30/18 game under his belt and two games with at least three swats.

Its current ownership projection gives it a 90% leverage rating on DraftKings and an 86% leverage rating on FanDuel.


Best Value: Wendell Carter vs. Boston Celtics – $ 6,100 DraftKings, $ 6,400 FanDuel

Carter finds his way back into this section thanks to a friendly pay, a friendly match, and a good chance to deliver a lot of value.

Carter has collected at least 15 points, 12 boards and three assists in two of his last three games, and he has a 93% leverage rating on FanDuel and 94% on DraftKings due to his huge potential.


Bonus: Jonas Valanciunas at Sacramento Kings – $ 8,500 DraftKings, $ 8,800 FanDuel

I couldn’t leave out JV here! His clash with the Kings is the Association’s best for opposing crosses, and he gets an opponent’s advantage over / under +4.9.

Sacramento was slashed by tough opponents, including three 20-rebound performances from Deandre Ayton and Rudy Gobert (twice). Valanciunas went 24/13 against the Kings last week.

If all that wasn’t good enough for you already, Valanciunas averages 20.8 points, 15.5 boards and 2.5 blocks / flights combined on the road versus 19.0 points, 13.5 boards and 1, 8 blocks / flights combined at home this season. As Willie Nelson sang, “I can’t wait to hit the road.”


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